West Ham have been predicted to finish in the bottom half of the Premier League in the 2017/18 season – below Stoke City and West Bromwich Albion.
Statistics experts FiveThirtyEight have devised a system which they believe can predict how the final table will look at the end of the upcoming campaign.
The polling and statistics company, most famous for their work on US election forecasts but also well known for their sporting research, are now owned by ESPN after having previously been published by the New York Times.
FiveThirtyEight are a multi-award winning company, including being named “Data Journalism Website of the Year” from the Global Editors Network in 2016.
Now, they have attempted to predict the final Premier League standings – and it’s really not good for West Ham.
Their research uses four metrics from each match – goals scored, adjusted goals, shot-based expected goals and non-shot expected goals – to come up with offensive and defensive ratings for each team in the league.
Those ratings are then used to calculate each side’s win, loss and draw percentage for each match across the campaign – and then the season is simulated thousands of times to determine each team’s chances of winning the league.
And, in those results, West Ham come out in 11th place in the Premier League – level on points with Stoke City and one point behind Leicester City.
Not great news at all.
Elsewhere Manchester City have been predicted to win the Premier League, beating Chelsea in to second place, whilst Arsenal would miss out on the Champions League places for a second season in a row.
The model also predicts all three promoted sides – Newcastle, Huddersfield and Brighton – to be relegated back to the Championship this season.